Military armored vehicles take part in the Baltops 2024 exercise in the Baltic Sea region, Sunday June 16, 2024. Some 9,000 troops from 20 NATO countries have been participating this month in military exercises in the Baltic Sea region, which has become strategically sensitive following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Think tank experts are warning that things might not be as peaceful as they seem in the Baltic Sea, a crucial waterway for trade next to Russia. Even though NATO countries seem to be in control, a new report says Russia could still stir up trouble.

Here’s the deal: on a map, NATO appears to surround the Baltic Sea, giving them the upper hand. But experts at the RAND Corporation say that the nickname “Lake NATO” can be misleading.

Why? Because Russia has ways to make things difficult for NATO ships, even if they can’t fully take over the sea. Imagine Russia planting underwater mines or hiding submarines – that could slow down NATO’s plans.

Russia’s Tricks Up Its Sleeve

The RAND report says Russia has a few sneaky tricks to potentially disrupt NATO:

  • Hidden dangers: Think of underwater mines as hidden bombs that can explode if a ship travels over them. The Baltic Sea’s layout, with narrow passages and winter ice, makes it a good spot for Russia to hide these mines and their quiet submarines.
  • Fancy weapons: Russia also has missiles, cyber-attacks, and well-trained soldiers that could target NATO bases and mess with their equipment.

Keeping Small Countries Safe

Some countries on the Baltic Sea, like Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, are apprehensive because they mostly rely on ships to get supplies. The report says it’s important for NATO to keep the shipping lanes open for these countries.

More Than Just Muscle

The war in Ukraine has already made NATO countries spend more on defense, but the experts say don’t get too relaxed. They recommend NATO keeps investing in things like better air defense, stronger ships, and equipment to find and clear mines and submarines.

But fighting isn’t the only answer. The report says it’s also important for NATO countries and Russia to talk things out and try to trust each other more to keep the peace in the Baltic Sea.

The Bottom Line

Even though NATO seems to be in charge of the Baltic Sea on paper, Russia still has ways to make trouble. The RAND Corporation says continued military strength and diplomatic efforts are key to keeping things calm in this important region.